Assuming ACN, CPC, and ANPP merge, would you vote for a Fashola/Shekarau Presidential ticket in 2015? Fashola is a media darling and will easily win the southwest and perform well (though not necessarily win) in the middle belt. Shekarau, raised his profile when he exceeded very low expectations in the 2011 Presidential debate. He was articulate and appeared like the kind of Northerner that Southerners would not mind voting for. The two biggest comma issues with this ticket are the following:
1. Do Buhari and Tinubu want to run for President or VP? If Buhari runs he will definitely get between 9 and 12 million votes and thus hurt the chances of this ticket. If Tinubu has national political ambitions, he could potentially frustrate Fahsola.
2. Will Goodluck get the 98% and 97% of votes that he got in the Southsouth and Southeast? For this ticket to succeed, the candidates will need to make inroads into the Southsouth and Southeast. Endorsements from people like Okorocha will help. However, the candidates have to make inroads before people like Okorocha can put their credibility on the line.
In my opinion, what this ticket would need is the full unequivocal endorsement of Buhari. That will give them 9 - 12 million votes to start with in the Core North. Fashola has the clout to deliver the Southwest and he has the goodwill to be competitive in the Middle Belt. The last piece of the puzzle will be the Southeast and the Southsouth. If Fashola gets more than 20% in those regions, he could be elected President.
What do you think?
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